The Lifespan of Written Constitutions

How long do constitutional systems persist and what explains their demise? This paper introduces a new set of data on the chronology and content of constitutions that facilitates a test of expectations about constitutional mortality and its associated risk factors. We develop a theory of constitutional longevity, in which executive ambition poses a principal threat to the constitutional order. We find that exogenous shocks such as wars and other crises destabilize the constitutional order, in part, we reason, because they induce constitutional transgression by the executive. Importantly, we find that certain structural elements of the constitution decrease mortality, perhaps even allowing the system to sustain such shocks. In particular, the legitimacy surrounding the adoption of the charter and adaptive mechanisms such as a flexible amendment procedure serve as sources of stability. We conclude with a discussion of the normative value of constitutional stability.